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Executive Summary
Retrospective analysis applying cross-reference methodology to the $11 billion fraud. The earliest high-confidence signal — $400M in CEO personal loans to cover margin calls — was in public filings 20 months before the fraud was disclosed.
Key Metrics
$11B
Total Fraud
$400M
CEO Personal Loans
20 mo
Signal Lead Time
The Five Layers
| Filing Type | Key Finding |
|---|---|
| DEF 14A | $400M in personal loans to CEO for margin calls |
| 10-K / 10-Q | Revenue and expense patterns masking fraud |
| 8-K | CFO termination and restatement announcements |
| Form 4 | CEO stock pledging creating perverse incentives |
| Analyst / Press | Rating agency and analyst warnings ignored |
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