Pre-IPO Risk Analysis

SpaceX / xAI — Pre-IPO Depreciation & Disclosure Gap

Five layers of public data nobody is cross-referencing before the SpaceX IPO. Hyperscaler depreciation conventions applied to orbital compute assets with zero actuarial history. $176B in estimated industry depreciation understatement. The question hiding inside a $1.5 trillion valuation.

Activist / Corporate Control

BlackLine (BL) — Forced Sale Infrastructure

A nine-month activist campaign to force a sale after the board rejected a $66/share SAP offer, mapped across public letters, Delaware records demands, proxy fight threats, and a cooperation agreement that created a Strategic Committee explicitly empowered to pursue a business combination. Stock at $36. Rejected offer was $66.

Corporate Control

Sabre Corporation (SABR) — 11-Month Corporate Control Playbook

An eleven-month corporate control playbook from silent accumulation using stock and derivatives, to board seat demands, to a poison pill that lasted five days, to a governance agreement placing the acquirer's travel tech division CEO on the Technology Committee.

Post-IPO Fraud Pattern

Gemini Space Station (GEMI) — Post-IPO Narrative Reversal

Every signal of a post-IPO collapse was in public SEC filings. Five filing types cross-referenced reveal a company that reversed its S-1 narrative within five months, lost 79% of its stock value, and saw its entire external C-suite depart on the same day.

Insider Behavioral Signal

Coinbase (COIN) — CEO Behavioral Divergence

88 consecutive Form 4 sell transactions totaling $550M by the CEO during a period when the company deployed $1.7B in share buybacks. The CEO praised retail investors' conviction on the earnings call while his 10b5-1 plan systematically liquidated.

Retrospective Study No. 1

WorldCom (WCOM) — Retrospective: 20 Months Before Collapse

Retrospective analysis applying cross-reference methodology to the $11 billion fraud. The earliest high-confidence signal — $400M in CEO personal loans to cover margin calls — was in public filings 20 months before the fraud was disclosed.